Hydrofracking gained much attention in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area last year as oil companies pursued special use permits to drill near Bergton, which would have resulted in the first such drilling in Virginia. Much of the public opposition to hydrofracking focused on environmental and health concerns, but a New York Times story released Saturday undermines the central argument for hydrofracking proponents: most hydrofracking wells are not profitable and the advertised economic boon might rely on accounting akin to Ponzi schemes.
I raised concern over hydrofracking’s environmental/health impact and lax regulatory environment last year while I was a candidate for the House of Delegates, as the issue was brought to my attention by a handful of measured and concerned citizens (the issue is also relevant to City of Harrisonburg residents as the Marcellus Shale extends beneath Harrisonburg’s water supply). The Community Alliance for Preservation, a Rockingham County-based citizens group, outlines some basic information on their website (be sure to check out the maps).
Ian Rubina wrote in Insiders Sound an Alarm Amid a Natural Gas Rush (June 25, 2011) an account that raises serious questions about whether hydrofracking can live up to its economic promise for both stockholders and landowners. Among the facts Rubina cites based on ” ‘hundreds of industry e-mails and internal documents’ and an analysis of data from thousands of wells”:
Independent Financial Analysts and Industry Scientists or Regulators
- “Money is pouring in” from investors even though shale gas is “inherently unprofitable,” an analyst from PNC Wealth Management, an investment company, wrote to a contractor in a February e-mail. “Reminds you of dot-coms.”
- “The word in the world of independents is that the shale plays are just giant Ponzi schemes and the economics just do not work,” an analyst from IHS Drilling Data, an energy research company, wrote in an e-mail on Aug. 28, 2009
- A former Enron executive wrote in 2009 while working at an energy company: “I wonder when they will start telling people these wells are just not what they thought they were going to be?” He added that the behavior of shale gas companies reminded him of what he saw when he worked at Enron.
- “Looks like crap,” the Schlumberger official wrote about the well’s performance, according to the regulator, “but operator will flip it based on ‘potential’ and make some money on it.”
Data from Over 10,000 Active Wells
- “while there are some very active wells, they are often surrounded by vast zones of less-productive wells that in some cases cost more to drill and operate than the gas they produce is worth.”
- “the amount of gas produced by many of the successful wells is falling much faster than initially predicted by energy companies, making it more difficult for them to turn a profit over the long run.”
- “In these shale gas plays no well is really economic right now,” the geologist said in aprevious e-mail to the same official on March 16. “They are all losing a little money or only making a little bit of money.”
- In September 2009, a geologist from ConocoPhillips, one of the largest producers of natural gas in the Barnett shale, warned in an e-mail to a colleague that shale gas might end up as “the world’s largest uneconomic field.”
The last I have heard of the issue is the Rockingham Board of Supervisors have not approved a special use permit for the drilling and the company who had applied to drill stopped their efforts due to some degree to local opposition. An August 31, 2010, Daily News-Record article states
The Houston-based energy company that wants to drill for natural gas in Rockingham County has backed off, at least for the time being, in the face of what executives termed “local resistance.”
Representatives of Carrizo Oil and Gas Co. say the company is no longer “actively pursuing” a special-use permit to explore for natural gas in Bergton.
More recent DNR articles cite hydrofracking’s contentious horizontal drilling process has been banned in the U.S. Forest Service’s plan to manage the George Washington Forest (DNR May 19, 2011):
A federal proposal for managing the George Washington National Forest bans the most commonly used technique to drill for natural gas in the Marcellus Shale formation.
By prohibiting horizontal drilling, the U.S. Forest Service’s management plan released Wednesday could also effectively prevent energy companies from using hydraulic fracturing in the George Washington.
But, even as hydrofracking has been delayed, as Hburgnews.com puts it, “A Year Later: The Prospect of Fracking Remains.“ Articles like Saturday’s in the NYT are a double-edged sword for us in western Virginia: while they pile on more evidence to be wary of hydrofracking in Virginia’s weak regulatory environment, they also suggest that Virginia’s portion of the Marcellus Shale is an important “next frontier” and gas companies may have increased incentive to turn the Shenandoah Valley’s western slope into a drill field. From Saturday’s NYT article:
Terry Engelder, a professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University, said the debate over long-term well performance was far from resolved. The Haynesville shale has not lived up to early expectations, he said, but industry projections have become more accurate and some wells in the Marcellus shale, which stretches from Virginia to New York, are outperforming expectations.
So, the return of the gas companies to the Shenandoah Valley ought to be expected. It would be nice if our state and federal legislators would anticipate this return by creating stronger regulations before the companies return, but that’s not happening so far.
“Siding with the natural gas industry, U.S. Rep. Bob Goodlatte says no scientific evidence conclusively shows that a controversial drilling technique is harmful to the environment.” (DNR January 28, 2011)
“Valley lawmakers preparing for the 2011 General Assembly session say they have no plans to introduce legislation to regulate natural gas production in the Marcellus Shale field. But they say they are keeping the contentious issue on their radar.” (DNR December 13, 2010)
State and federal legislators thus far can lean on the economic promise of hydrofracking, saying it’s no time to limit people’s ability to make money. And, they can point to our need for energy. This weekend’s NYT article is significant because it erodes both of those easy arguments to support hydrofracking despite its documented negative health, environmental, and economic impacts: it’s just plain bad business.
