Check out the latest trends and figures in the August 2011 Harrisonburg-Rockingham Real Estate Market Report! Harrisonburg-Rockingham Market Report – August 2011 PDF
Up, Down, and Around the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Real Estate Market
June 8, 2011 By Leave a Comment
The graphic shows how many residential properties have sold in the HRAR MLS so far in 2011. Overall, the market is slightly down when compared to last year, due at least in part to home buyers tax credit available in 2010.
The Kline May Realty Market Harrisonburg-Rockingham Real Estate Market Report is published for the period ending May 31, 2011. Let’s take a look at what’s going on.
Residential sales figures for the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service (HRAR MLS) in May declined slightly from April, but Buyer activity (property showings and new contracts) remains steady. [Read more...]
WSJ Says It’s Time to Buy
June 6, 2011 By Leave a Comment
The Wall Street Journal recently published an article title Why It’s Time to Buy, in which the authors argue that, “Despite all the gloom … there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy.” This should be encouraging news for anyone considering purchasing a new home or investment, and has good credit and a strong employment history.
Ruth Simon and Jessica Silver-Greenberg cite low mortgage rates, low prices, and a high supply as two main reasons that we’re in a buyers market:
Mortgage rates, which fell to 4.55% for the week ending June 2, according to Freddie Mac, are near 50-year lows. Homes have become more affordable than they have been in years: According to Moody’s Analytics, the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12.5% lower than the 1989-2004 average. A historic glut of homes, meanwhile, has created a buyer’s market: There were about 15 million vacant homes in the U.S. last year, according to John Burns Real Estate ConsultingInc.—some 3.1 million more than normal.
The article makes a number of interesting points and I recommend the read.
A Tale of Two Markets: Over and Under $125,000
June 1, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Units Sold at Various Prices in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Real Estate Market Jan-May 2010 vs 2011
So, we’ve finished May – five months are complete in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham real estate market. This week, there’s been much national news about a home price “double-dip“, and I’ll explore whether that’s the case locally in terms of price in an upcoming post. For now, let’s just compare the first five months of this year’s real estate market with the first five months from last year using the number of units sold at various price points.
Take a look at the embedded summary image of number of properties sold vs their price. There has been a marked increase in the number of units sold priced at $125,000 or less. This suggests investors and others are confident and able to secure these lower priced homes. There was an 141% increase in number of homes sold priced between $75-100,000, and 60% increase in number of homes sold between $100-125,000.
And, then comes the rest of the market: all prices ranges from $125-300,000 saw fewer homes sold this year compared with the same period last year. One part of the explanation is the 2010 home buyers tax credit, which was a motivating factor in 2010 but was available in 2011.
The $325,000 and $400,000 price points show drop offs in number of homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. No price range from $325-400,000 saw more than four properties sell this year, and no price range above $400,000 showing more than three units sold so far in 2011.
The spring season is one of negotiations and writing purchase contracts, so it remains to be seen how the units sold comparison will look through as we go through the summer months in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.
Buyers Still in Driver’s Seat in Harrisonburg/Rockingham Real Estate Market
May 10, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Figure 1: April 2011 showed an apparent seasonal spike in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham real estate market. The chart shows an increase in 2009 and 2010 similarly timed with April in 2011. (Source: Harrisonburg -Rockingham Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service, 5/09/2011)
The Harrisonburg/Rockingham real estate market report is showing a continued decrease in prices and an increase in average days on market for homes listed for sale. It remains a buyer’s market!
Figure 1 shows a spike in the average and median prices of homes that sold in April 2011. Initially, that might suggest that prices are going up and that the market is turning around. However, the previous years show a similar spike in prices at the same time of the year, following by a decline in the following few months.
Figure 2: The last 12 months' average and median prices for homes in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham area continue to decline, though not as steeply as the national average. It remains a buyer's market! (Source: Harrisonburg -Rockingham Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service, 5/09/2011)
Figure 2 is a better clue for the overall average price of Harrisonburg/Rockingham real estate. This chart averages the average and median price from the previous 12 months. As is shown, the rolling 12-month Harrisonburg/Rockingham real estate prices continue a decent – meaning homes continue to be more affordable for people looking to buy or invest.
What does this mean for sellers?
For anyone with property currently listed for sale, they should pay attention to the declining prices and consider how competitively priced their home is. [Read more...]
Has the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Housing Market Hit Bottom?
February 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Figure 1: There were 57 closed transactions in the HRAR MLS in January 2011.
Harrisonburg/Rockingham Real Estate Market Report Shows Few Sales in January
This month’s Housing Market Report shows that only 57 residential units sold through the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service (HRAR MLS) during the month of January (Figure 1).
That’s no surprise, really, as the low number follows a trend for the winter months seen the last five years. Most of these closing would have been from ratified contracts in November and December, a time of year where many people are focused on the holidays and buying gifts rather than purchasing real estate.
Anecdotally, it seems area REALTORS are seeing more activity by buyers the last month or so, which would suggest the coming months having an increased number of closings.
Good News for Balancing Market: Inventory Drops
Figure 2: The seasonal inventory trends (numbers of homes listed for sale) is approximately the lowest it has been since 2008.
More surprising is the more than 20% reduction in the number of homes for sale in the area (Figure 2).
Part of the cause for prices declining is supply is so much higher than demand, so sellers must lower their prices to be considered – so, a reduction of homes on the market is move towards a more balanced market.
Prices are Stabilizing:
Since September 2010, prices in the Harrisonburg-Rockingham area have stabilized, and even increased a bit (Figure 3). The average is just a bit under $200,000. The lower median value suggests more lower-priced homes are being sold, which is consistent with last month’s analysis on absorption rates.
Looking Ahead
The spring market consistently sees more homes listed for sale, but also more homes sold. The proportion of both will be a determining factor in whether the coming months will see prices remain stable or not.
Figure 3: The trend for average and median prices in the Harrisonburg-Rockingham area suggests some leveling out after a sustained decline.
It remains to be seen whether this means the market has hit bottom – an increase in inventory, from more people putting their homes on the market in the spring for example, could begin to depress prices again. Of course, it will be towards the end of 2011 before we will know for sure whether this is a turning point or just a temporary reprieve from a declining real estate market.
Check back often for additional analysis of the Harrisonburg-Rockingham real estate market.
How quickly are homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?
January 26, 2011 By 2 Comments
Absorption rate is a common statistic in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market reports. Absorption rates describe how quickly or slowly homes are being sold in the market. The higher the rate, the more aggressive a home seller needs to be to have their home noticed, because a higher rate means homes in that market are not selling as quickly.
Calculating 12-Month Absorption Rate
Absorption rates are calculated by choosing an amount of time, like 12 months, and seeing how many properties sold in that time in the market segment you are interested in exploring. To get the 12-month absorption rate, divide the number of homes sold in a market segment in the past 12 months by 12 months. Then, divide the number of properties currently for sale in the market segment (the inventory) by the previous result. That’s the absorption rate. A final result of 6 is considered a neutral market, a higher number (homes take longer to sell) is considered a buyers market and a lower number (homes are selling quickly) being a sellers market.
Studying Absorption Rates in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Real Estate Market
The “real estate market” is in actuality many different markets, as the overall number of properties for sale can be broken down into almost endless subcategories. Price ranges are a useful category to use when exploring a market, as they are a quick way to study differences in the market. Townhomes and single family homes are also two useful categories of distinction.
Karl Waizecker of Kline May Realty recently studied 2010 real estate sales data from the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Associations and REALTORS MLS and calculated absorption rates at various price levels for townhomes and single family homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. His analysis included breaking down Harrisonburg and Rockingham County into the county’s geographic sections and Massanutten, but the figures here show only Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as a whole.
Figure 1 describes the 12-month absorption rate for the townhome market at various price levels. The chart shows that lower priced townhomes are in more competitive market. That makes some sense, since more people can afford lower priced townhomes and there is thus more supply relative to the demand compared with higher priced townhomes. In fact, some of the lower price segments actually are in a sellers market – as are the highest priced townhomes!
Townhomes priced between $120,000 and $179,999 are selling the slowest of anything in the whole real estate market. The big driver for this is how many townhomes in each category are for sale as of December 31, 2010: 51 townhomes for sale between $120,000-$139,999, 49 between $140,000-$159,999, and 35 between $160,000-$179,999.
Figure 2 shows the 12-month absorption rate for the single family home market at various price levels. Again, at the lower priced levels, homes are selling at a quicker pace – but all the categories (except one) have an absorption rate higher than six, suggesting there is a buyers market at all price levels for single family homes.
Figure 1: 12-Month Absorption Rates for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Townhomes on December 31, 2010 (Source: Harrisonburg Rockingham Association of REALTORS MLS)
Figure 2: 12-Month Absorption Rates for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Single Family Homes on December 31, 2010 (Source: Harrisonburg Rockingham Association of REALTORS MLS)
Harrisonburg Housing Market Report December 2010
January 7, 2011 By 1 Comment
The change in total residential units sold in the Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS shows the fifth consecutive year of fewer units being sold than the year before; however, the chart shows a decreasing trend of this statistic. (Source: Harrionsburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service, data accessed Jan 7, 2010)
So, 2010 is now behind us. As we look at the year and ask “How did the local real estate market do?”, our initial response is probably something like “Not too well!”. Local Realtors will tell you 2010 was a tough year, one in which Buyers, Sellers and agents had to go to (sometimes) extraordinary lengths to complete a deal. It was a year in which distressed properties exerted a heavy influence on our market and lenders continued in their attempts to refine their Short Sale and Foreclosure processes. 2010 was a year in which, despite falling prices, historically low interest rates and plentiful inventory, Buyers seemed reluctant to buy. [Read more...]
Harrisonburg Housing Market Report November 2010
December 9, 2010 By Leave a Comment
The residential sales volume for the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of Realtors. Prepared by Karl Waizecker of Kline May Realty.
This is an excerpt of a report prepared by Karl Waizecker of Kline May Realty – While one month’s activity certainly is not a trend and one must always be cautious about drawing conclusions from short term data, our local real estate market enjoyed a bit of a rebound in November. Total units sold rose 27% from October to 93 units. The pace of sales is still below historic norms, but perhaps the November activity is a sign we are past the posttax credit “hangover”.
Comparing the first eleven months of 2010 with the first eleven months of previous years, we find 2010 is still slightly behind last year’s sales pace , totaling 77 fewer residential units sold YTD than at the end of November 2009. Still, however, we see a reversal of the trend of the previous few years. It appears from the data that the Harrisonburg / Rockingham County area real estate market hit bottom at the end of 2008 and has been (very) slowly recovering since. [Read more...]
